Tianfeng： Trading volume + Liangrong both have a great opportunity to break through trillions of brokerage stocks
Tianfeng: Trading volume + Liangrong both have a great opportunity to break through trillions of brokerage stocks
Original title:[Tianfeng Non-Silver]Trading volume + both financial and financial breakthroughs in trillions, brokerage stocks have a great opportunity to earnestly grasp!
[Broker stocks have not yet reflected the improvement in performance brought about by increasing market activity. Follow-up performance, interest rates, and policy averages will constitute upward momentum.]1. The transaction volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has reached a new high for the year and 杭州夜网论坛 is expected to achieve significantly higher expectations!
Since February, the average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen has reached 852 billion yuan, + 22% month-on-month and + 45% in ten years. The turnover of the two cities has reached the trillion level.
After calculation, it is assumed that the trading volume of the two cities is maintained at 850 billion yuan, and the performance increase is 9.9 billion yuan, accounting for 7 of the 20-year net profit of the securities industry.
2. The balance of Liangrong Finance continued to rise, and the daily average scale increased by more than 130 billion compared with 19 years!
As of February 18, the balance of Liangrong was 1075.2 billion, a new high since the 15-year bull market.
From 2020 to the present, the average daily surplus of the two financial institutions is US $ 104.49 billion, a significant increase of US $ 133.3 billion compared with 19 years, an increase of + 15%!
The preliminary daily average earnings of the two financial markets are expected to rise above 1.
2 trillion level, + 32% for the whole year!
3. IPO, refinancing, M & A and restructuring are all good. In 2020, it must be a big year of equity financing, and investment banking business income is expected to increase by + 20% to 66.2 billion.
Asset management business de-channeling has limited marginal impact on performance. Last year’s performance is expected to be 28.9 billion yuan, an annual increase of 8%.
4. It is estimated that the improvement of securities companies stems from the improvement of loose liquidity and superimposed equity market policies.
The epidemic situation has resumed the downward trend of risk-free interest rates, while interest rates have reduced the performance and estimates of brokers, and reduced the costs borne by brokers.
Favorable policies for equity financing come out frequently (refinancing + mergers and acquisitions reorganization + spin-offs, etc.). The follow-up policies mainly include the GEM registration system, the transfer financing system, and the addition of commodity and financial financing budget products.
5. The 20-year industry performance is expected to be 14.3 million yuan, + 24% per year.
The estimation is still below the historical center. At present, the average valuation of the securities industry2.
0x PB, the median historical industry estimate is 2.
4x PB (2012 to present).
The birth of an aircraft carrier-grade brokerage is an important industry trend, and the survival dilemma of small and medium-sized brokerages will become more significant.
In 2020, we will unswervingly recommend Huatai Securities (1.
4x dynamic PB), CITIC Securities (1.
7x dynamic PB), Guotai Junan (1.
3 times dynamic PB)!
We expect the follow-up securities stocks to take place at the end of October 2018. Actively grasp!